Weekly

China's packaging materials exports fall 15 per cent to $4.5B in 2023

Simon Matthis, 29 August 2024

In 2023, the amount of packaging materials exported from China declined slightly to 3.9M tons, standing approx. at 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a resilient expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.9% over the last decade.

The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +55.5% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when exports increased by 57% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 3.9M tons, leveling off in the following year. In value terms, packaging materials exports dropped dramatically to $4.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2023.

In general, total exports indicated a prominent expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +64.1% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when exports increased by 51%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $5.4B, and then fell sharply in the following year.

Exports by Country

Vietnam (374K tons), Russia (272K tons) and Turkey (243K tons) were the main destinations of packaging materials exports from China, together accounting for 23% of total exports. From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +19.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for packaging materials exported from China were Vietnam ($421M), Russia ($397M) and Taiwan (Chinese) ($224M), with a combined 23% share of total exports. Russia, with a CAGR of +25.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports by Type

Folding boxboard (3.1M tons) was the largest type of packaging materials exported from China, with a 80% share of total exports. Moreover, folding boxboard exceeded the volume of the second product type, wrapping paper, packaging paper and paperboard (294K tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by other papers packaging (247K tons), with a 6.3% share. From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of the volume of folding boxboard exports stood at +8.3%.

With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: wrapping paper, packaging paper and paperboard (+5.6% per year) and other papers packaging (+13.1% per year). In value terms, folding boxboard ($3.4B) remains the largest type of packaging materials exported from China, comprising 74% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by wrapping paper, packaging paper and paperboard ($466M), with a 10% share of total exports. It was followed by paperboard case materials, with an 8.4% share. From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of the value of folding boxboard exports totaled +9.0%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: wrapping paper, packaging paper and paperboard (+4.5% per year) and paperboard case materials (+3.3% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2023, the packaging materials price stood at $1,160 per ton (FOB, China), waning by -14.6% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 21%. The export price peaked at $1,411 per ton in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure. Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Russia ($1,458 per ton), while the average price for exports to Turkey ($907 per ton) was amongst the lowest. From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Russia (+4.9%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: Pulp & Paper